The Effects of Low Birth Rates in Taiwan
According to the data from Ministry of the Interior, Taiwan began to enter the era of negative population growth with 178,000 growths and 181,100 deaths in 2020. Also, The World Population Review (2019) states that Taiwan’s current fertility rate is at 1.218 children per woman and the population’s current annual growth rate is at 0.27 percent. The reason why Taiwan’s birth rate is lower than the other countries is that the young people have no motivation to give birth to a baby, since the cost of raising a child is extremely handsome. Low birth rate will cause numerous effects that are serious to Taiwan, such as the loss of demographic dividend, relative industries, and tax revenue.
When 2020 begins, demographic dividend doesn’t exist in Taiwan society anymore owing to the decrease of newborn population and the increase of elderly population. Demographic dividend is a period of economic boost when a country’s working-age population grows larger compared to the young dependent population. Namely, it is the climax of the labor force which can bring a country with rapid economic growth. The so-called “Taiwan Economic Miracle” is supported by the demographic dividend during the late 20th century. The problem now is the lack of the labor force, which may lead to the maladjustment of labor market on demand and supply. Then, the shrinking market, the divestiture, and the worst condition-the negative growth of economic will thus emerge. Even though Taiwan is the 21th of the world biggest economies in 2018, Taiwan’s domestic demand market will keep shrinking because of the negative population growth. As time goes on, the global competitiveness will decline. Therefore, the government should face and address the scenarios after the loss of demographic dividend.
Next, relative industries like education, nursery, and Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology will confront with the difficulty. Due to the decrease of newborn babies, more and more schools recruit little students or even shut down. The most severe situation is at junior high school overall, as there are 178,826 students reducing in 2014 to 2018. According to the statistics of Ministry of Education (2019), the amount of private nursery has decreased by 371 in recent five years. The statistics from Ministry of Health and Welfare (2019) shows that the number of Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology has also decreased by 8.9% and shut down 98 departments in recent ten years. These data manifest the extreme trouble of the relative industries because they completely rely upon students, babies, and pregnant women. However, the sum of the need is vanishing.
For another, the less the population is, the less the tax revenue is. Tax is undoubtedly the major part of the government revenue. If the population continues to reduce, it will impact on the public finance, such as infrastructure, social welfare, national health insurance, and so on. Once the revenue diminishes, the authority will deduct the expenditure or decide to tax more; as a result, the standard of living will accordingly deteriorate whichever the solutions the government choose. At the same time, as mentioned above, Taiwan is lack of labor force, which means that the elderly population will increase dramatically based on the progress of population pyramid because the aging population will accumulate and ultimately count in the elderly population. Besides, the healthcare technology enhances a lot; consequently, the need of senior citizens welfare is immediate. Nevertheless, the fund may be destitute, which will contribute to the incompletion of the Long-term Care Policy, not to mention the other policies.
Low birth rate is the priority for Taiwan government to deal with, for the effects will become an enormous burden for the next generation. The insufficiency of labor means the next generation will live a harder life. The shutdown of relative industries means there will be numerous people losing their jobs. The loss of tax revenue means the policy in the future will be obstructed a lot. The authority should come up with the relative solutions to alleviate the social and financial pressure on young population who work in order to take care of the family and themselves. Although low birth rate is a crisis but not a catastrophe, it still depends on how Taiwan society faces it.
References
Deaeth. D. (2019), Taiwan's population to decline faster than World Population Review claims
https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3665513
Sources
N/A. (N/A), demographic dividend, investing in human capital
https://demographicdividend.org/about-demographic-dividend/
The Economist (website). (2018), Rankings, The world economy
https://worldinfigures.com/rankings/topic/8
Population pyramid of Japan, 1950, 2007 and 2050
https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Population-pyramid-of-Japan-1950-2007-and-2050_fig1_227471622
Jennings.R. (2018), Taiwan's Population Will Decline By 2021: Why That's Bad News For Its Tech-Led Economy
